Luke Kemp, of the Fenner School of Environment and Society at the Australian National University, wrote in a commentary for Nature that “withdrawal is unlikely to change U.S. emissions” because “U.S. greenhouse gas emissions are disconnected from international legal obligations.” He added, however, that this could hamper efforts to mitigate climate change if the United States ceases to contribute to the Green Climate Fund. Kemp said the impact of a U.S. exit could be good or bad for the Paris agreement, because “an unseraunted American president can do more damage inside than outside the agreement.” Finally, “a withdrawal could also make the United States a climate pariah and provide China and the EU with a unique opportunity to take control of the climate regime and significantly strengthen their international reputation and soft power.”  On the other hand, there is the belief that China is not in a position to take control of the climate regime and that it should instead “help rebuild global leadership by replacing the Sino-Chinese G2 partnership with a climate 5 (C5) partnership comprising China, the EU, India, Brazil and South Africa.”  Article 28 of the agreement allows the parties to terminate the contract following a communication to the custodian, but the broadcast communication may not take place until three years after the agreement for the country enters into force. The payment is made one year after the transfer. Alternatively, the agreement provides that the withdrawal of the UNFCCC, under which the Paris Agreement was adopted, also withdraws the state from the Paris Agreement. The terms of the UNFCCC`s exit are the same as those of the Paris Agreement. President Trump has long criticized the 2015 agreement and insisted that the United States leave it as soon as possible. Just last month, Trump called the agreement a “total disaster,” arguing that the Obama administration`s commitments to reduce CO2 emissions under the agreement had “affected” U.S. competitiveness.
The action, which took place on the first day under the complex rules of the withdrawal agreement, begins a one-year countdown to the U.S. exit and a concerted effort to lower the Paris Agreement, under which nearly 200 nations have pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and help poor countries cope with the worst effects of an already warming planet. “We have worked very hard to ensure that every country in the world can join this new agreement.